Political Analyst Biran Gai Warns of Rising Tensions Ahead of December Election

By Makutu Manneh

Biran Gai, a political analyst and lecturer in political science at the University of The Gambia, has warned that the country is navigating an increasingly complex political environment ahead of the December 5 presidential election, raising concerns about political intimidation, public confidence in electoral institutions, and the potential for unrest.

Speaking on Kerr Fatou’s Race for State House program, Mr. Gai said recent political developments underscored the need for greater vigilance by state institutions, political parties, and other electoral stakeholders to ensure a peaceful and credible election.

He described the current political climate as “very complex,” arguing that while every stakeholder has a responsibility to uphold democratic principles, the government bears the primary responsibility for maintaining internal security.

Mr. Gai stressed that political parties should not be left to provide their own security in an open democratic environment, calling on the authorities to ensure that all political actors can exercise their rights without intimidation.

“The burning or pulling down of billboards is a new dimension in Gambian politics and something Gambians are not accustomed to,” he said.

He also expressed concern over political slogans such as “No Talib, No Elections,” describing them as alarming signs of growing tensions surrounding the electoral process.

Mr. Gai explained that political affiliation and public expressions of support are fundamental features of a multiparty democracy, where citizens seek to identify with political movements and demonstrate allegiance to their preferred candidates.

However, he warned that perceptions of electoral unfairness, particularly when reinforced by rumors and uncertainty, could provoke strong reactions among supporters.

According to him, when citizens begin to believe that an election may not be free and fair, or that rumors about the electoral process could materialize, their reactions may become increasingly difficult to predict.

He emphasized that peaceful, transparent, and accountable elections require more than the conduct of voting itself, arguing that the broader political environment and the fairness of electoral procedures must also be carefully assessed.

Mr. Gai characterized some of the developments in the current political climate as forms of psychological intimidation rather than outright physical violence, state-sponsored violence, or direct attacks between rival political parties.

He warned that uncertainty surrounding the eligibility of individual presidential candidates, coupled with questions about the Independent Electoral Commission’s (IEC) capacity to organize credible elections, could further undermine public confidence.

He said doubts about whether the IEC and the government could guarantee a transparent and impartial electoral process had the potential to deepen political tensions if not adequately addressed.

The political analyst urged all stakeholders to exercise caution, warning that growing suspicion and mistrust could have wider consequences for the country’s democratic stability.

Mr. Gai also emphasized that The Gambia belongs to all its citizens, regardless of political affiliation, and pointed to the country’s history of elections between 1982 and 2021 as a reminder of the importance of protecting democratic participation.

He called on both the ruling party and opposition groups to respect the electoral process, the dignity of political opponents and the constitutional right to freedom of political association.

Mr. Gai further urged the police to strengthen their response to emerging political tensions, stressing that the consequences extend beyond political parties to ordinary citizens.

He maintained that effective policing, institutional impartiality and respect for political rights would be essential to preserving public confidence and preventing tensions from escalating as the December presidential election approaches.