By Makutu Manneh
Political analyst Lamin Juwara has argued that governance concerns, including corruption, do not consistently determine voting behavior in The Gambia, contending that the availability of a credible political alternative plays a greater role in shaping electoral outcomes.
Speaking on the Kerr Fatou Politic Kaacha program, Mr. Juwara said public dissatisfaction with governance does not necessarily translate into votes against an incumbent government.
He noted that opinion polls often reveal a contradiction in voter attitudes, with respondents criticizing government performance and acknowledging corruption while simultaneously expressing support for the incumbent.
“Gambians don’t react to issues when it comes to the election itself, such as corruption. That does not determine their voter behavior,” he said.
According to Mr. Juwara, voting decisions are influenced more by citizens’ lived experiences, perceptions, and the political choices available to them than by governance issues alone. He added that political parties in The Gambia often respond to public sentiment rather than shaping the national political agenda.
Addressing opposition claims that President Adama Barrow is politically vulnerable and that public demand for change is at its highest, Mr. Juwara pointed to previous elections as evidence that economic and governance challenges do not automatically lead to a change in government.
He cited the period between 2004 and 2006, when The Gambia experienced rising inflation, and opposition figures were imprisoned after criticizing the government over the economy. Despite those challenges, he noted, former President Yahya Jammeh secured victory in the 2006 presidential election.
Mr. Juwara also referenced the 1982 election, arguing that if economic hardship alone determined electoral outcomes, former President Sir Dawda Kairaba Jawara would not have won after implementing the Economic Recovery Program.
He said Gambian voters have historically tended to support incumbent governments when they do not view the opposition as presenting a credible alternative.
“That has been the consistent behavior over time,” he said.
Looking ahead to the Dec. 5 presidential election, Mr. Juwara said the opposition faces a critical strategic decision. In his view, opposition parties must either unite behind a coalition capable of challenging President Barrow or risk postponing their prospects for power until the next electoral cycle in 2031.
He predicted that a fragmented opposition would have only limited prospects of unseating the incumbent president.
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