By Makutu Manneh
Political analyst Lamin Juwara has said the alliance between the National People’s Party (NPP) and the Gambia Democratic Congress (GDC) significantly strengthens President Adama Barrow’s prospects for re-election in the December 5 presidential election while increasing pressure on opposition parties to unite behind a common strategy.
In an interview with Kerr Fatou, Juwara described the partnership as one of the most consequential political developments ahead of the election, arguing that it consolidates support behind the incumbent and makes it more difficult for the opposition to mount a coordinated challenge.
He warned that unless opposition parties revive coalition talks or agree on a joint electoral strategy, their chances of defeating the incumbent would diminish considerably.
“This is an opportunity as well as a challenge for the opposition. The best thing to do would be to adjust strategy. In plurality electoral systems, the weak opposition is good for the incumbent,” Juwara said.
According to the analyst, the opposition’s preferred option would be to negotiate a coalition around a single presidential candidate. If such an agreement proves unattainable, he suggested that a secondary strategy would be to rally behind a credible third-force candidate. While acknowledging that such an approach carries greater electoral risks, he said it could provide voters with an alternative to the country’s two dominant political blocs.
Juwara drew parallels with the 2021 presidential election, arguing that divisions within the opposition contributed to the ruling party’s victory.
“At that time, the NPP was able to attract support from several parties and political actors while opposition groups remained divided. As a result, concerns about corruption, unemployment, governance, electricity shortages, and institutional reform did not translate into an electoral defeat for the government,” he said.
Juwara argued that election outcomes in The Gambia are shaped by a range of factors beyond the government’s performance. He said identity politics, regional loyalties, incumbency, patronage networks, campaign resources, and perceptions of political stability all play a significant role in influencing how voters cast their ballots.
Although many Gambians remain concerned about corruption, unemployment, electricity shortages, governance challenges, and the pace of institutional reforms, Juwara said those issues have not consistently determined election outcomes.
“The incumbent continues to benefit from advantages in visibility, organizational capacity, financial resources, and coalition-building,” he said.
Juwara said the NPP-GDC agreement should be viewed as more than a partnership between two political parties, describing it instead as a strategic realignment that reshapes the electoral landscape by strengthening President Barrow’s path to re-election while making it more difficult for opposition parties to prevail.
He also placed the alliance within a broader political science context, arguing that many political parties across Africa, including those in The Gambia, remain weakly institutionalized and often lack clearly defined ideological identities.
Instead, he said, party alliances frequently revolve around personalities, strategic calculations and electoral survival rather than coherent policy platforms. Viewed through that lens, he said, the NPP-GDC partnership is best understood as an electoral coalition designed primarily to improve President Barrow’s chances of securing another term.
Juwara cautioned, however, that electoral alliances should also be judged by their capacity to govern. He noted that coalitions composed of parties with differing ideologies and policy priorities often face challenges once in office, urging Gambians to consider not only the alliance’s electoral viability but also whether it offers a coherent governance agenda.
The analyst also questioned the issue of political consistency, pointing to the GDC’s previous criticisms of the Barrow administration on governance and corruption. He said democratic accountability requires political leaders to explain significant shifts in political positions, particularly when those changes appear to contradict earlier public statements.
Turning to the ruling party’s internal dynamics, Juwara said the alliance also serves an important strategic purpose for the NPP, which has experienced internal divisions and defections in recent years. Bringing the GDC into the governing coalition, he argued, broadens the party’s electoral base while reinforcing unity ahead of the presidential election.
With just months remaining before Gambians head to the polls on December 5, Juwara said the opposition now faces a defining strategic choice: unite behind a common front or risk contesting the election against a strengthened incumbent backed by an expanded political alliance.
Comments are closed.