Omar Ceesay Says CepRass 2026 Polls Offer Insight but No Certainty on Election Outcome

By Seedy Jobe 

Omar Ceesay, a former National Assembly member for Niamina East and a senior figure in the Gambia Democratic Congress, has cautioned against reading pre-election opinion polls as definitive predictors of electoral outcomes, while acknowledging their value as strategic indicators for political actors.

In comments published on his Facebook page, Mr. Ceesay addressed the recently released CepRass opinion poll ahead of The Gambia’s 2026 presidential election, describing the relationship between polling data and final results as inherently uncertain.

“The certainty of the CepRass 2026 election poll survey translating accurately to the final election outcomes is a complex issue”, he wrote.

Mr. Ceesay noted that public opinion is subject to change and can be influenced by a range of factors over time, including economic conditions, political developments, social dynamics, and security concerns.

“Survey polls generally across the globe have the potential to change over time by certain factors such as social, economic, political, cultural, and security issues, which can hinder progress before the predicted period, and CepRass is no exception,” he noted.

Despite these uncertainties, Mr. Ceesay argued that the survey reflects one enduring reality of the current political landscape: the strength of President Adama Barrow’s support base.

“In the case of the aforementioned survey, one undeniable factor remains, “Uncle Sam” (President Barrow) wields significant influence in this political landscape,” he said.

According to Mr. Ceesay, that support has yet to be seriously challenged by rival candidates, a factor he believes could weigh heavily on the final outcome of the election.

“His support base, which has the potential to secure his victory, has not yet been effectively challenged or penetrated by opposing candidates,” he emphasized. 

While stopping short of predicting the result, Mr. Ceesay suggested that President Barrow’s entrenched political strength may ultimately prove decisive, even as polling data remains subject to change.