Erosion of Strategic Leverage Leaves The Gambia Facing Rising Economic Dependence, Warns Dr. Abdoulie Bojang

By Seedy Jobe

Former National Assembly aspirant and political commentator Dr. Abdoulie Bojang has warned that The Gambia’s once-significant strategic position in West Africa has been steadily eroded, exposing the country to growing economic dependence on Senegal.

In a detailed statement shared with Kerr Fatou, Dr. Bojang cautioned that the country’s failure to effectively harness its geographic advantage has undermined its economic sovereignty.

“The Gambia is living through a moment when what is lost is not immediately visible, not announced with ceremony, not debated loudly in parliament, yet its consequences unfold steadily, quietly, and decisively,” he stated.

He noted that The Gambia once occupied a functional strategic position comparable to the Strait of Hormuz—not due to oil, but because of its control over time, movement, and regional transit.

“We once held, not in name but in function, a strategic position akin to a Strait of Hormuz within West Africa, an economic chokepoint defined not by oil but by time, movement, and geography. Today, that leverage has largely dissolved, and in its place a new reality is emerging, one of deepening dependence and subtle economic absorption by Senegal,” he added.

Dr. Bojang pointed to the construction of the Senegambia Bridge as a turning point. While the bridge significantly improved mobility and trade, he argued that it also eliminated a form of economic leverage previously exercised through ferry crossings.

“Delays at ferry crossings were not inefficiencies alone; they were leverage. In strategic trade terms, they imposed a cost on movement, and whoever influences cost influences behavior,” he explained.

Highlighting the country’s widening trade imbalance, Dr. Bojang cited figures indicating that The Gambia’s trade deficit reached approximately 30.64 percent of GDP in 2024. Imports accounted for about 37.19 percent of GDP, compared to exports at just 6.55 percent, reflecting what he described as a structurally weak export base.

He further noted that by 2025, imports had risen to roughly $1.0 billion, while exports stood at about $309 million, leaving a goods deficit of nearly $700 million within nine months.

Dr. Bojang attributed the situation to a lack of long-term strategic planning. He observed that under former president Yahya Jammeh, there was at least an intuitive recognition of the country’s geographic importance, though this was never translated into formal economic systems.

“Leverage existed, but it was informal and episodic, not embedded in policy or infrastructure,” he said.

He added that under the current administration of President Adama Barrow, the focus has shifted toward openness, regional cooperation, and integration—measures he described as necessary for stability, but insufficient on their own.

“In removing friction from the system, we also removed a mechanism of influence. Efficiency replaced leverage, but leverage was not reinvented,” he noted.

To address these challenges, Dr. Bojang called for a strategic pivot toward a value-added economy and broader trade diversification. He emphasized the need to transform the Port of Banjul into a fully-fledged regional logistics and re-export hub.

“Goods must choose The Gambia, not simply pass through it. Value chains must be anchored locally,” he stressed.

He also underscored the importance of innovation and efficiency, suggesting that speed and reliability could become new sources of competitive advantage.

“If we can no longer slow movement, we must accelerate it better than anyone else. Efficiency can become a new form of power,” he said.

Dr. Bojang concluded with a cautionary note, warning that without decisive action, the country risks deeper economic dependence.

“If we fail to act, the quiet forces of economic gravity will continue to pull us toward dependency. If we act with clarity and purpose, we can rebuild leverage, not by stopping the flow, but by becoming essential to it.”