By Fatou Sillah
Political scientist Biran Gai says the National People’s Party (NPP) would benefit most from a fragmented opposition in the 2026 presidential election, arguing that The Gambia’s electoral history shows opposition parties have struggled to unseat incumbent governments when they contest elections separately.
Speaking in an interview with Eye Africa, Mr. Gai said repeated divisions among opposition parties have undermined efforts to defeat ruling governments, pointing to previous elections in which opposition groups failed to unite behind a single candidate.
He cited the 2016 presidential election as the clearest example of the electoral impact of opposition unity. In that contest, several opposition parties formed a coalition behind a single candidate and defeated the incumbent government, ending Yahya Jammeh’s 22-year rule.
Mr. Gai said a comparable level of unity would likely be necessary if the opposition hopes to mount a serious challenge against the NPP in the 2026 election.
“The greatest success for NPP is going to be a fragmented opposition because when you understand Gambia’s electoral history, starting from 1994 to date, we have seen situations of opposition fragmentation that were not able to defeat the ruling incumbency,” he said.
Commenting on ongoing coalition negotiations among opposition parties, Mr. Gai said any alliance must be grounded in political realities, including the relative strength of participating parties, their electoral records, and the size of their support bases.
He argued that larger political parties typically wield greater influence during coalition negotiations because of their past electoral performance and established organizational structures.
Mr. Gai also questioned whether an opposition coalition that excludes, or is not led by, the United Democratic Party (UDP) could remain viable over the long term. He said the UDP’s electoral history and political influence make it a central player in any credible opposition alliance.
He added that coalition negotiations ahead of the 2026 election are likely to be more complicated than those in 2016 because a larger number of political parties and movements are now involved in the discussions, making consensus more difficult to achieve.
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