Analyst: UNITE Defeating Both NPP and UDP in December Would Be a “Political Earthquake”

By Makutu Manneh

Political analyst Biran Gai has said that a victory by the UNITE-led alliance over both the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) and the United Democratic Party (UDP) in the December election would amount to a political earthquake.

Speaking on Kerr Fatou’s Race for State House programme, Gai described such an outcome as a miracle. He said it was achievable, but would be a seismic shift in the country’s politics if it occurred.

Gai said the UDP faces a serious challenge following its fragmentation, noting that UNITE was formed out of the party and that prominent candidate Lamin J. Darboe also emerged from its ranks.

He questioned whether anyone believes UNITE and Darboe will not eat into the UDP’s support. He also asked where the party expects to find an additional 26 percent of the vote, and whether it has done enough to mobilise other voters to make up for the numbers it stands to lose.

“Make no mistake, Talib went away with UDP numbers, no doubt about that,” Gai said. “My belief is that Talib is going to take more numbers from the NPP, but the numbers are going to be more hurtful to the UDP.”

Gai recalled that President Barrow won the 2021 election with around 400,000 votes, nearly double the roughly 200,000 secured by the second-placed UDP.

He said the UDP now needs a third force, possibly UNITE, to perform strongly enough against President Barrow to bring his numbers “seriously down.”

Gai described the UDP as an organic party with its own base of support, but argued that its chances of winning depend largely on how other political actors perform.