Analyst Warns Smaller Parties Could Split Opposition Vote in December Presidential Election

By Makutu Manneh

Political analyst Biran Gai has cautioned that smaller parties and groups contesting the December 5 presidential election risk fragmenting the opposition vote, potentially helping the incumbent retain power.

Speaking on Kerr Fatou’s Race for State House programme, Gai described the smaller contenders as potential spoilers who could undermine efforts to unseat President Adama Barrow.

He said the opposition has the numbers to defeat Barrow, but only if its supporters unite behind a single candidate.

“There are easy numbers to beat the incumbent. The crowd that UDP, UNITE and No-to-Alliance pulled during the nomination, if you put this together, is a mismatch to the NPP numbers. But then, how do you harmonise these numbers into a definite choice that has the potential of ousting the NPP from power?” he said.

According to Gai, this is where strategy becomes essential, and where the opposition must still learn from the experience of 2016.

He further argued that supporters of No-to-Alliance did not vote for Barrow in the 2021 presidential election, and that their decision not to back him again therefore has no bearing on the NPP’s numbers.

Gai explained that the party’s support base would only be affected if those voters had been part of an alliance that handed the NPP an absolute majority in 2021. That, he stressed, was not the case.