Juwara Says Propaganda Drives Gambian Politics, Warns Against Equating Rally Crowds With Electoral Support

By Seedy Jobe

Political analyst Lamin Juwara has described propaganda as a driving force in Gambian politics, arguing that the growing competition among political parties over rally attendance is more about shaping public perception than demonstrating actual electoral strength.

Speaking on Kerr Fatou’s Politic Kaacha program on Tuesday, Mr. Juwara said political parties were employing different strategies to project their popularity ahead of the December 5 presidential election, with crowd sizes becoming a central feature of their political messaging.

He pointed to recent political gatherings organized by the UNITE Party, the United Democratic Party (UDP), and the ruling National People’s Party (NPP), noting that each had sought to demonstrate its strength through public mobilization.

Mr. Juwara cautioned, however, that large crowds should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of electoral support.

Drawing on the work of Gambian scholar Professor Abdoulaye Saine, particularly his analysis of democratization in Africa and The Gambia’s political experience since 1994, Mr. Juwara identified three factors he said were essential to understanding political mobilization.

The first, he explained, is political euphoria, which he described as the excitement and atmosphere surrounding political gatherings. According to him, people are often attracted to rallies by the entertainment, energy, and general excitement, regardless of their political affiliations.

He said this phenomenon was common across the political spectrum, affecting gatherings organized by UNITE, UDP, and NPP alike.

The second factor, political loyalty, concerns the established support bases that parties can reliably mobilize.

Mr. Juwara argued that parties such as the UDP have committed supporters who are likely to attend their events regardless of prevailing political circumstances. Similarly, he said, President Adama Barrow benefits from an established political following and the advantages associated with incumbency.

He noted that other political parties had also demonstrated an ability to mobilize their supporters.

The third and most significant factor, he said, is electoral behavior: whether the enthusiasm and loyalty displayed at political gatherings ultimately translate into votes.

Mr. Juwara warned that political parties risk misreading their electoral prospects if they rely primarily on rally attendance to predict victory.

Citing studies on political participation, he said only about 19 to 20 percent of people actively participate in visible political activities, while many others remain outside the public political arena but still make decisions about whom to support.

He argued that these less visible voters could prove decisive, making it important for political parties to look beyond the crowds attending their rallies.

Assessing the strengths of the major political parties, Mr. Juwara characterized the UDP as a party rooted in established political principles and traditions, while describing the NPP as a party that benefits significantly from incumbency.

He cautioned against underestimating the ruling party’s institutional and political advantages, saying any opposition party that disregarded those factors would be making a strategic mistake.

He also identified what he described as a distinct advantage for UNITE, arguing that the party appeared particularly well-positioned to attract new voters.

According to him, emerging voting patterns suggest that a significant proportion of new voters tend to gravitate toward UNITE, potentially giving the party an important advantage in the electoral contest.

Turning to the debate over presidential term limits, Mr. Juwara questioned President Barrow’s stated support for the principle, arguing that genuine political convictions should remain consistent regardless of personal or political circumstances.

He challenged the president’s remarks about his position on a third term, saying that someone who genuinely believes in a political principle should not abandon or reinterpret it when circumstances change.

To illustrate his argument, Mr. Juwara recalled the leadership of former President Sir Dawda Kairaba Jawara, who, he said, resisted pressure from members of his own party to establish a one-party state.

According to Mr. Juwara, despite pressure to consolidate political power, Jawara remained committed to multiparty democracy.

He credited that decision with helping The Gambia maintain a tradition of multiparty politics, drawing comparisons with Botswana as another African country with a longstanding history of competitive electoral politics.

Mr. Juwara also rejected attempts to justify the absence of presidential term limits in The Gambia by citing countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany, where heads of government are not subject to fixed limits on the number of terms they may serve.

He argued that such comparisons overlooked fundamental differences in governance, institutional development and living standards.

Mr. Juwara questioned whether Gambian leaders had delivered the same quality of life and public services that citizens in Britain and Germany enjoy.

He maintained that if President Barrow wished to compare The Gambia’s political system with those countries, Gambians were equally entitled to demand comparable standards of governance and public welfare.

He argued that the country’s political history and institutional circumstances made such comparisons inappropriate.

Mr. Juwara concluded that a president genuinely committed to term limits should demonstrate that commitment through concrete action rather than invoking the political arrangements of other countries.

He said President Barrow should have unequivocally affirmed his support for presidential term limits and taken the necessary steps to ensure their introduction in The Gambia.