Dr. Omar Sambou Says Barrow Will Lose Despite Large Rally Crowds

By Seedy Jobe

Prominent Gambian environmental scientist, academic, and activist Dr. Omar Malmo Sambou has argued that President Adama Barrow will lose the December presidential election, dismissing large crowds at the president’s rallies and a growing number of opposition figures joining his alliance as unreliable measures of electoral strength.

Dr. Sambou made the remarks Monday during an interview on Kerr Fatou’s Kaacha program, where he was asked what evidence suggested that Mr. Barrow was losing political ground at a time when the president’s alliance appeared to be expanding.

“Longevity actually exposes people’s political vulnerability,” Dr. Sambou said, arguing that remaining in power for an extended period can expose a government’s weaknesses and deepen public dissatisfaction.

He compared the current political climate to the final months of former President Yahya Jammeh’s rule, saying Mr. Jammeh and his supporters projected confidence and attracted large crowds even as dissatisfaction with his government was growing.

Dr. Sambou argued that political rallies are not necessarily reliable indicators of how people will vote. He said several politicians joined Mr. Jammeh during the election year in which he ultimately lost power, including some who had suffered political setbacks elsewhere. Those alliances, he said, generated visible enthusiasm and large gatherings but did not translate into enough votes to keep Mr. Jammeh in office.

He similarly questioned the electoral significance of politicians now joining President Barrow’s camp, contending that some lack substantial political constituencies of their own and may be motivated more by personal interests than ideological conviction.

Dr. Sambou said he believes a significant number of Gambians remain quietly dissatisfied with the government and could express that frustration at the ballot box.

“There are many things that happened in this country that show that Adama’s government should lose, and citizens are silently sitting on it, being angry,” he said.

Among the issues he cited were what he described as unresolved questions of justice surrounding killings in the country, the continued presence of Senegalese forces as part of the regional security mission, and concerns about the use of ethnic identity in politics.

Dr. Sambou also disputed the assumption that everyone attending the president’s rallies is necessarily a supporter. Some, he argued, attend because relatives or associates hold government or political positions but may ultimately vote differently.

He contrasted that with politicians who have broken with the president, citing Kebba Madi as an example and arguing that such departures can also take supporters away from the ruling coalition.

Dr. Sambou further argued that appeals portraying members of the ruling camp as politically vulnerable because of their ethnic or minority status would be less effective against Talib Ahmed Bensouda, the presidential candidate of Coalition 2026.

His comments come as political alliances continue to shift ahead of the December presidential election, with President Barrow seeking to broaden his governing coalition while opposition groups work to consolidate support behind competing candidates.