Biran Gai, a lecturer in political science at the UTG & Demba Ali Jawo, former Information Minister
By Makutu Manneh
Biran Gai, a lecturer in political science at the University of The Gambia, warned on Tuesday that unless opposition parties unite ahead of the 2026 presidential election, the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) is poised to win “comfortably.”
“The biggest alliance in The Gambia right now is the party in power,” Gai said during an appearance on the Kerr Fatou program Politic Kacha. He stressed that electoral outcomes hinge on numbers, citing the 2016 and 2021 presidential elections. In 2016, President Adama Barrow won 43 percent of the vote, and in 2021, he secured an absolute majority, while the main opposition, the United Democratic Party (UDP), captured roughly 26 percent.
Gai said these results illustrate that any attempt to unseat the NPP would require “serious efforts” and a consolidated opposition. “Now that Talib and Co. have formed their own political movement. Do you expect UDP to grow from 27 percent or to decrease? Sometimes we have to be realistic and rational and analyze politics based on facts,” he said.
He argued that the opposition must unify to marshal public support, noting that a significant portion of Gambians remain dissatisfied with the ruling party. “Without the UDP, there would be no change,” Gai said, emphasizing the party’s central role in any viable challenge to the incumbent.
Demba Ali Jawo, a journalist and former Minister of Information, echoed Gai’s concerns. He noted that President Barrow is leveraging public resources to campaign for his party, making it even more critical for the opposition to form a coalition.
“I think this is what the oppositions have to realize and come together to form a coalition,” Jawo said.
Still, he cautioned that coalition-building remains a perennial challenge in Gambian politics, where disputes over leadership positions have repeatedly derailed unity efforts. “Everyone wants to lead,” he said. “But that is impossible. There has to be a compromise and a strategic choice of who should head a coalition.”