Biran Gai Says UDP Support Is Crucial to Any Opposition Coalition Seeking Victory in 2026

By Fatou Sillah

Political analyst Biran Gai says the United Democratic Party’s established support base will be crucial to any opposition coalition hoping to defeat the National People’s Party in the 2026 presidential election, but he expressed doubts that the UDP and the UNITE-led Coalition 2026 could overcome their differences and join forces.

Speaking in an interview with Eye Africa TV, Gai argued that the UDP has maintained a reliable bloc of voters over successive elections, making its support difficult for any serious opposition alliance to ignore.

“Any coalition without the UDP, I don’t think they will be able to win in 2026 because you need the numbers of the UDP,” he said. “Historically, they have proven that they have fixed numbers. UDP numbers do exist, and therefore any political organization will need their numbers.”

Despite that electoral strength, Gai said he was pessimistic about the prospects of an alliance between the UDP and Coalition 2026, which is led by UNITE. He said the two camps currently hold different positions and have competing demands that could make an agreement difficult.

According to Gai, some of those differences can be traced to the circumstances surrounding the departure of some UNITE members from the UDP. He said they had questioned whether the UDP’s leadership was capable of winning a presidential election.

Gai also pointed to the UDP’s history in previous coalition negotiations, saying the party has at times withdrawn from talks when its conditions were not accepted. He said some of the same tensions appear to be resurfacing as opposition groups position themselves ahead of the 2026 election.

Still, Gai cautioned against viewing the UDP as the only force that matters in building a viable opposition coalition. Other parties and political movements, he said, bring their own constituencies to the table, requiring all sides to compromise if they hope to assemble broader electoral support.

He said the UDP’s claim to being the country’s largest political party was understandable given its electoral record, but added that its ability, or inability, to bring other opposition groups on board could prove equally important.

In Gai’s assessment, neither side can easily dispense with the other: a broader opposition alliance would need the UDP’s established voter base, while the UDP would also need support beyond its traditional constituency to build a winning coalition.

“Likewise, they too will need the remaining numbers of the others in order to get this in,” he said.