Biran Gai Says Opposition’s Chances of Removing Barrow Are Slim

By Fatou Sillah

Political analyst Biran Gai says the opposition’s chances of defeating President Adama Barrow in the 2026 presidential election remain slim, arguing that divisions among opposition parties could ultimately strengthen the incumbent’s position.

Speaking in an interview with Eye Africa TV, Gai said opposition parties have become too focused on attacking and criticizing one another rather than directing their efforts at President Barrow’s National People’s Party, which he described as their principal political opponent.

“I think the chances of that happening are very slim at the moment,” Gai said. “When you analyze the opposition political landscape, or the political landscape in general, I think the opposition are misdirecting their vision to the wrong purpose.”

Gai said the opposition remains fragmented, with competing parties, alliances, and coalition efforts increasingly turning their attention toward one another. Such divisions, he said, could work to the NPP’s advantage as the election approaches.

He pointed in particular to the political realignment involving the United Democratic Party, Talib Bensouda and several former UDP figures. While some of the support now associated with Bensouda may have come from the UDP’s traditional base, Gai cautioned that it was too early to determine where those voters would ultimately cast their ballots.

Undecided voters, he added, could still significantly reshape the electoral landscape before the election.

Gai said the country’s electoral system must also be taken into account when assessing the opposition’s prospects, arguing that a crowded and divided field would make it more difficult to unseat an incumbent president.

For the opposition to mount a serious challenge to the NPP, he said, the strongest option would be a broad alliance similar to the coalition that defeated former President Yahya Jammeh in 2016.

Gai also warned that continued fragmentation could discourage undecided voters from participating altogether. Some voters, he said, may conclude that backing a divided opposition amounts to wasting their vote, potentially leading them to stay home or support the NPP instead.

Rather than spending their energy fighting among themselves, Gai said, opposition parties should focus on presenting voters with a clear and convincing alternative, one that shows Gambians how a change in government would improve their daily lives.