By Makutu Manneh
Biran Gai, a political analyst and lecturer in political science at the University of The Gambia, has warned that both the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) and opposition parties face significant challenges ahead of the December 5 presidential election, emphasizing that Gambians rarely vote based on policy issues.
In an exclusive phone interview with Kerr Fatou, Gai addressed the ongoing debate between the ruling NPP and the main opposition, the United Democratic Party (UDP), over the recently released CepRass survey, with each side claiming favorable results.
He cautioned the opposition against overinterpreting the survey data, noting that recent opinion polls in the country, including those by Gambia Participate and the Centre for Research and Policy Development, have closely mirrored election outcomes.
“NPP can claim satisfaction over this poll. I think what it tells us more, or what the opposition needs to learn more, is the need to come together to counter the narrative or to counter these perceptions ahead of the 2026 presidential election,” Gai said.
Gai also highlighted the fragmented state of opposition parties, pointing out that 18% of voters remain undecided—a critical group that opposition parties, particularly the UDP, should target. “But as it stands now, I think all votes lead to an NPP victory if the opposition remains fragmented,” he warned.
He stressed that the government’s poor performance ratings necessitate serious attention. Yet, Gai noted a paradox: despite these ratings, respondents still indicate they will likely vote for the ruling NPP. This suggests that in The Gambia, voting behavior is driven less by issues or tangible political variables and more by incumbent party loyalty or candidate personality.
“These are the two dynamics that the survey has exposed. That is when it comes to voting in elections, Gambians vote differently. They do not vote along the variables that are identified, such as the economy, irregular migration, unemployment, and women’s employment issues,” Gai explained.
He urged opposition parties to focus their campaigns on these issues and craft messaging that resonates with the electorate to gain traction ahead of the elections.
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