Marr Nyang Says 2026 Presidential Race Remains a Three-Way Contest Between Barrow, Darboe and Bensouda

By Fatou Sillah

Marr Nyang, executive director of Gambia Participates, says The Gambia’s 2026 presidential election remains an open contest, with President Adama Barrow, United Democratic Party leader Ousainou Darboe and Coalition 2026 flag bearer Talib Ahmed Bensouda emerging as the three main contenders in the organization’s latest opinion poll.

Nyang said the findings suggest that the race is far from settled, with none of the leading candidates commanding enough support to make the outcome certain. He said undecided voters could therefore play a significant role in determining the eventual winner.

“If all goes to Ousainou Darboe, he wins; if all goes to Talib, he wins. If a slight part of it goes to Barrow, he wins. So virtually this election is between three candidates: Barrow, Ousainou and Talib,” Nyang said.

He noted that the proportion of undecided voters has declined compared with the previous year, but remains large enough to potentially reshape the contest depending on where those voters ultimately turn.

Nyang also drew a distinction between voting intention and perceptions of which candidate is most likely to win. According to him, about 25 percent of respondents said they would vote for Darboe if the election were held at the time of the survey, while 23 percent believed the UDP leader had a strong chance of winning.

For Bensouda, Nyang said about 19 percent indicated they would vote for him, while 12 percent believed he had a strong chance of winning the presidency.

“Between Darboe and Talib, they share about 40 percent of the opposition votes. So what this is telling us is that, for this election, for a candidate to score 35 or 40 percent is going to be very difficult,” he said.

Nyang cautioned that the two sets of figures measure different things: a respondent’s preferred candidate and their assessment of who is most likely to win. Strong support for a candidate, he said, does not necessarily mean voters believe that candidate has the best chance of securing the presidency.

He also said Barrow benefits from the advantages of incumbency, including access to resources, political networks, and influence. Voters may also take government development projects, including road construction, into account when assessing the president’s prospects, he said.

Despite Barrow’s lead in the poll, Nyang stressed that the election remains competitive and that voter preferences could shift significantly before Gambians head to the polls in December 2026.